In a post dated January 14 found on the economic news site Market Watch, (http://ww w.marketwatch.com) Paul B. Farrow proposes an article on the equity markets entitled

"14 Winning Strategies in a Recession Bear Market"

Farrow quotes largely from the 2008 US economic forecasts of "one of America's leading economists, Gary Shilling, Forbes columnist and editor of "Insight," a financial newsletter"
He (they) write:

"Leaping volatility in many markets is telling investors, painfully, just how far out the risk spectrum they had climbed. So the de-leveraging of the many areas of intense speculation beyond housing is at hand."

In strategy no. 8 he advises:

"Sell or avoid most commercial real estate. During the 1974-1979 recession, I (Farrow) was at Morgan Stanley helping REITs, banks and developers work-out huge problem portfolios. Today smells worse. "

Whether such a slump in commercial real estate will be exported globally is probably anybody's guess. Yet in today's markets, economic trends are global like never before. It certainly is a time for caution.

Neustria