Originally Posted by Gashead

Some very good points there JAM3Y. You're right, it's perhaps the end of the beginning and there is a slight maturity developing with hot spots like JBR and Downtown but returns may be as good elsewhere... just not so glitzy.

I think Dubai still has a long way to go firstly because supply will not be allowed to reach demand. Sheikh Mo just won't allow it. As soon as it approaches parity and yields fall to a point (that I'm sure they already have etched in stone somewhere) then construction will be forced to slow down. It's already started to happen with the granting of an amnesty to illegal workers. 200,000 left the country last year. Why??? To put the brakes on and prevent overheating and to limit supply.

The next big spike for Dubai is when the casinos come... and they are coming regardless of the culture. Why else do you think islands are being built offshore when there is so much land and coastline available? Casinos operate 24/7 every day of the year and the one problem Dubai has is that it is a hellhole for 6 months of the year.

One problem is that there are so many first time buyers here, mostly asian, who have never been in this position. Traditionally they just extend their property back home over the years but now they can earn enough to buy an apartment and they feel top of the world. But they will flood the market if there is a downturn, even if the yearly capital increase falls to 20% or so (and who in the west wouldn't bite your hand off for 20% year on year?). But again, if this sector of the population flood the market the royal family will put the brakes on that too. They'll just bring in a law for example that you cannot sell a property withing 2 years of buying it. It's their country they can do what they want.

Dubai won't be allowed to fail but you need to be in the market, no point in just watching and no point in wishing you'd bought in Arabian Ranches 4 years ago.