Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingworld
Mr Broad, do you know where one of the longest runways in the Uk is? Doncaster..now known as Robin Hood Airport....only recently developed by your friends at Thomson Fly. Has it become a major transit route and opened up the local economy? There is a vast difference between a new airport and a new hub....if the brazilian Govt be it federal or Local are so confident about it, why seek investment from outside? Clearly you cannot have a hub in place without the infrastructure, by two swallows do not make a summer and it seems to me that many are clinging onto the hope that this airport will be the starting point for the oversold and underinvested boom that is allegedly on the way.
Brazil has potential but it is way way behind other parts of the world like Middle East and Far East, clearly this is why it is cheap....but what seems clear to me is that real tourist investment has not gone in......I just paid the same price as a Pousada on Ponta Negra for a fully furnished "business suite in The Far East, includes flat screen tv, iron, kettle, ac, king bed, free water, safe, dvd and stereo etc etc.........and the flight price was over £200 less than Brazil. Give me onbe good reason why there is going to be a stampede to Brazil for so much less at the same price and get mugged int he process. I am not knocking Brazil, just recognising the reality..something that few seem able to do!
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As I've mentioned several times before, it's not only about the current situation but about what we believe will happen in the future. I'm no psychic so I don't claim to know exactly what will happen.
However having said that. I believe the airport in Natal will be built. I believe that the new airport will initially have capacity for 5 mil passengers, three times more than the current capacity. I believe that if the demand is there, that airport will have the ability to be rapidly expanded to 10-15 mil passengers. Of course for that to happen a number of conditions have to come into play.
But once again - and I've said this a billion times -
Nine states make up the Northeast,
Four airports welcome 81% of total arrivals (98% of international 82% of domestic). For those that don't like statistics - 15.300.097 passengers of a total of 18.721.106 passengers to the northeast.
Those four airports are running at combined 100% capacity, (84%, 120%, 121% and 99%) so demand for a new airport is justified. So far this year, there has been overall 7% growth on those figures.
The last airport which was increased in capacity in the region was Recife which was increased from 1.5 mil to 5 mil (more than three times the capacity). This increase was in 2004 - three years later (2007), this airport welcomed 4.2 mil arrivals (84% of expanded capacity or 280% of previous capacity).
So from the above, what I understand is that not only is the new airport easily justified to the powers that be but that the growth of 1.5 mil to 10 mil over a period of a couple of years is possible, especially if they do move forwards and open up the legislation to make it a hub. Of course it isn't a hub now, it's hardly an airport.
But it isn't necessarily a duck, it could turn out to be a swan.