Yes, and political situation is exactly the starting point.
I might be wrong but I think like this:
- Serbia will not intervene - they know its the price they have to pay for getting in EU. It was a hard decision, and opposed by large groups of radicals who nearly won the elections. But what is going to benefit Serbia more - getting their national pride back or opportunity for economic development? The risk is in radicals getting back to power, but my bet is that they wont - Serbia suffered too much economically till now to make such a step backwards.
- Compare it with Iraq - Kurdistan (north Iraq) is an investment hotspot right now. It is unbelievable how much is happening there right now. So we can see that there is a calibre of investors who are familiar with this kind of high-risk investments.
- The real factor that will facilitate good investments is the willingness of government to support the investors by allowing them to make money in exchange for infrastructure and expertise. That's what went wrong in Croatia - government is inviting investors but made it impossible for them to make any money.
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