No, that was my post which was based on articles in Brazilian newspapers, research on the Brazilian airports management company website (Infraero) and the Brazilian investment page website and forums.

Now, I've been away over the weekend therefore haven't replied not because I didn't have anything to say but because I was down on the beach trying to go a darker shade of pale white... I'm one of those people that simply don't tan.

As I said earlier GW, currently, I agree that the flights to Natal at the moment aren't the best however everything indicates that things will improve. But I know you want facts so:

In 2003, a total of 5.687 international flights landed in airports in the Northeast of Brazil, carrying a total of 541.877 passengers, an average of just over 45 thousand international visitors per month.

In 2006, a total of 8.429 international flights landed in the same airports, carrying a total of 714.810 passengers, an average of just over 59.5 thousand international visitors per month.

I compared to 2006 because YTD the figures available only cover May 2007, so it made more sense to compare the full year to date figures for 2003 and 2006.

Now, lets look at those figures. Nothing really particularly amazing about them, however lets put them into context of what interests us (considering where the major investments are in the northeast):

In 2003, a total of 655 international flights landed in Natal airport, carrying 101.687 international passengers, an average of 8.473 passengers per month.

In 2006 this figure increased to 2002 international flights, carrying 249.189 passengers, an average of 20.765 passengers per month.

So, take the total for the northeast as the trend for the area, compare it to Natal specifically and this is what it looks like:

Region: 32% increase in international visitors ytd 2003-2006
Natal: 145% increase in international visitors ytd 2003-2006

Add to that the official statements by the Governor of Natal, Infraero, Brazilian Newspapers, etc all confirming that the New airport of Natal is now (finally) going to be pushed forwards with regards to completion, even if it means that it will be run for a period by the Spanish airport management company instead of the Brazilian one. Concluding this statement by saying that their goal is to reach an influx of 5 million passengers a year (ytd total in 2006 was 1.391.956 passengers total).

Factually, it looks like demand for Natal increased.

Not really, it will be one of the "largest in the world" for cargo however will still be one of the largest in Brazil for passengers. While it won't be one of the largest in the world for passengers it will still be a lot larger

Cheers JMB ,

The information, facts and figures look good!
So natals situation does look positive- but like all things in life time will tell!!!

Thanx for that- D

You can fly to Fortaleza and Natal from Amsterdam with Arkefly - bookings through www dot flybrazil dot nl. Flights are on Wednesday (sometimes Sunday also). Prices from 500 Euros. A good option for UK residents because it's very easy to fly cheaply to Amsterdam from a number of UK airports.
Dick Dawson

Hi dick,

That is useful information as like you said a cheap flight to amersterdam and then fly on!

Also it would be nice to spend a night or two in amsterdam then fly on after to brazil!!!

See ya D

With regard to your stats, I would comment as follows. Are these figures all arrivals or just international arrivals? I would guess almost certainly all arrivals. In in which case there is growth in internal travel and actually no evidence of a huge growth in "international arrivals". Even if they are international arrivals these figures are miniscule compared to European airports. I stick to my assertion that there are not enough flights direct into Natal from Europe (forget N America, complete waste of time) either now or planned for 2008 and in reality there aren't the airlines around to do them anymore. Thomson/1st Choice are merging...Airtours are merging with T Cooke..thats the UK travel industry. As for scheduled there is Virgin, BMI and BA and BA definitely won't go direct to NE Brazil, now or never! That maybe leaves Virgin, a big maybe. So now there is growth, now we know there will be a massive airport which airlines are actually going to fly there from the UK? Sorry, but the arguements still do not stack up. North America doesn't really have charter airlines..tourists use scheduled airlines and make up their own package. AA masquerades as having flights to cities in Brazil but if you read the facts they are actually AA flights to Rio/SP then TAM internally, they do not fly direct to anywhere else in Brazil. I don't think United or Continental even go to Brazil. From Europe you have KLM, Airfrance, Lufhansa and Iberia. Guess where direct...Rio/SP. Air France also pretend to have direct flights to Salvador, Natal and Recife but again these are code share of TAM internal flights from..you've guessed it Rio/SP.

Nope, just International - Total passengers arrived in Natal in 2006: 1.391.956, 249.189 of which were international passengers.

Total passengers the new airport will cater to is estimated at 5.000.000 which taking the same % just to give us a rough idea would result in 895.104 international passengers which is roughly about 74.591 international visitors per month.

The whole point is though, that we are talking about an emerging market. If it was comparable to European destinations, there would be no point investing there.

The idea is that we look at global locations with the idea of seeing where we think growth is likely to occur and invest in those location so that their growth will relate directly to the growth of our investments in those areas.

5.000.000 passengers IS comparable to European destinations, specifically 7 Spanish airports receive around 5 mil passengers per year. It's not comparable to European capital cities, but other European destinations it is.

We should really be looking at a minimum of 5 years to achieve max potential from our investments, in which case we are talking about (assuming you are looking to buy today) 2012. By this time the new airport should be up and running, the resorts will be finished and your investment should have made you a tidy profit. 2008 is not a realistic comparison for a property investor, imho, 2012 is.

If you look at the Brazilian economy it is showing massive growth as well. I haven't got time right now to go into figures because I also have work to do but I have done my own research and everything indicates massive growth. But don't take my word for it, go and visit Goldman Sachs and look at their financial projections for Brazil - they estimate it will be one of the worlds leading economies by 2030. The research I've done only backs that up.

Just to give you a quick idea, Brazilian GDP went from 460.8 billion US$ in 2002 to 947.9 Billion US$ in 2006 while international debt went from 233.1 billion US$ to 182.4 billion US$.

One question: how come you have 17 posts and are an active member and I've got 18 and am a Junior

Either way, got a lot of work to finish today so I'll check back later on this evening. Have a nice day

Haha ok, was just curious

Hi all,

Realistically you are right JMB -You need to be looking long term within 5 years to see and feel the difference!

Brazil have appointed a new "HEAD OF AVIATION DIRECTOR" To sort out the mess in Brazil!

Most international flights fly to SP and RIO as these are the main brazilian hubs in the country (at the moment) But this looks about to change in natal by the looks of it!!

The key problems with brazils aviation at the moment is th staffing levels and training OR should I say lack of it coupled with the increasing demand in flights to brazil!!

PURE AND SIMPLY AT THE MOMENT THEY CANNOT COPE WITH THE INCREASE AND DEMAND!!!
And that is quoted in all articles regarding brazils aviation problems and also highlighted in wake of the two recent plane crashes there!!

With the new aviation director on board with the pressure on him from the brazilian president and government to sort out the caos- Im sure he will along with the financial and resource support that he will be and is receiving from the president!

He will have to make the changes necessary to cater for the economic growth that will continue to rise provided that they can change the situations regarding aviation that are holding them back!!!

Once open-skys and bi-lateral aviation agreements are in place the economy will witness an un-precidented boom!!! In my opinion!!

Yes- we all know that there are no direct flights from the uk to brazil, thats obvious! But the uk may well choose not to fly at the moment due to THESE HIGHLIGHTED SAFETY ISSUES IN BRAZIL...???? Ever thought about it from that angle???

I have a cousin who is an aircontroller in southhampton who varifies that this is often the case as other coutries are not safe to fly and the uk will not take the risk until they make safety changes to their aviation systems!!!
Also she recommends that never fly in Russia as this is the most dangerous place to fly as their airtraffic control is the worst in the world- so many near misses in airspace that it is unbelievable???

See ya D