Dee Dee are you a Miss as you replied "obrigada"? If so apologies for calling you mate! This is a great debate. Firtly, you don't wnant to worry about the near misses...it's the head ons that do damage!
But, I really do think it is wishful thinking on your part, particularly from the UK. I personally beleive (as you have guessed) that the increase in traffic is due to the low cost airlines in Brazil, TAM, Gol and there's another one now. The fact is that Natal's tourism in Dec06- March 07 was well down on the previous year. Part of this was because the scared off those there for "sex tourism" and there was a big campaign going on. Wisely, they want to build real tourism there, so there is no gain without pain. But, there aren't the airlines out there to fill the void, certainly not at present and this is my whole point. Scheduled carriers will not switch into Natal in my view for the reason well detailed above. Virgin might do one flight a week, big deal 400 people max. Someone someone is talking about the A380, this is also wishful thinking. My mate sells them their wings and Airbus have major issues with the A380 and huge delays. Not only that but he tells me it will only ever be used on major transit routes and I regret that Natal is not nor ever will be one of these. As for a long term "emerging market" yes of course you are right, but again this is my point. In my view, this market is not going to move up in price and there are many limiting factors as to why, also detailed above. This is why I say that the prices being requested at present are madness and in particular compared to the local economy and local property prices. I think that "rental guarantees" are built into sales/marketing budgets and bear no relation to actual likely tourist influx. I looked a a place (Quality Inn) on the front at Ponta Negra and it worked out that the management charge was more expensive or the same as staying in a small hotel or renting another apartment. So, everyone is basing their projections on capital growth of the asset and my whole point is that there isn't going to be any, for at least 7/10 years. So, in the meantime, you pay a management fee for the interim period which would be greater than just renting or going to an all inclusive hotel. If a buyer has €1/200k to throw at a speculative investment and beleives the hype, fine its their money. But, I have done extensive research and my speciality is "export market research" and "dealing with airlines/duty free business" and my gut feel tells me that it is mostly hype and wishful thinking. You pays your money.........sorry about my spelling I am not that illiterate!

Hi GW,

At last you have revealed what it is that you do for a living and why you are so passionate about this specific issue with brazil!!

I feel that you have valid points but yet agin beg to differ to a certain extent!

Yes there is hype also but natal will be a tourism, commercial and export hub all rolled into one!

TOURISM FIGURES IN GENERAL ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN ACROSS THE BOARD and not just in brazil!
This is due to interest rates, less disposable income, people investing in properties abroad instead and people being precautious over gordan brown taking over as prime minister- as they are unsure as to what will happen next i.e- rising interest rates, taxes etc!!


I AGREE ABOUT THE PRICING- BUT THIS IS AIMED AT THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN MARKETS AND NOT THE LOCAL MARKETS-SO TO US IN COMPARISON IT IS CHEAP!!! But for the locals of brazil it is very expensive!!
It is the same in many countries and for properties abroad especially off plan developments!!

Lets take Bulgaria for example- three years ago nobody bearly even heard of it!!
Yet people have been flocking for the cheap properties in a far eastern european country that no-one knows anything about until they made it into the EU!!

Same again with prices, property,issues with flights and accessibility- but all that has changed significantly in such a short space of time!
This example is a small one of many out there!
Look at panama, argentina,thailand,turkey ,mexico ,eastern european blocks, even nicaragua, venezula and albania are turning up and starting to show their faces for investment long term- it never ends!!!!

SO BRAZIL IS NOT THE FIRST IN ITS LINE TO HAVE ISSUES AND OVER COME THESE HURDLES WITH TIME AND NOR WILL THEY BE THE LAST!!!

See ya D

Firstly, Bulgaria are not in the EU as far as I know! I am only passionate because I have been looking at Brasil for over a year now and to date I have been told unadulterated claptrap by everyone I have spoken to. Everyone to their own, we all make our choices. What I find unusual though is there hasn't been a stampede from developers to shoot me down in flames. Nor has there been one response to my cheap flights thread. This sends me a message and that is the claims made are highly optimistic and the facts are being used to "talk up" the location. I am a "cup half empty" merchant (no prizes for guessing that) and it has stood me in good stead in the past. I think the prices being request for 1st phases are ludicrous and this level of pricing will squeeze any gains for the early investors. Pricing levels have been set to take more margin at the beginning as they bear no relevance to the local market at all. I really don't think Natal is a good investment for "off plan" at these levels. I do think that anyone who buys a 2nd hand property in the right area will make a killing. The good news is that most foriegners don't want the pain of doing that and prefer the safety of the hype and an agent/developer that speaks their language. I don't think there is anyobody that has invested in Spain or Portugal in the last 4/5 years that has made real money, least of all off plan lower cost properties. The measure is not the perceived value, but cash in hand on a sale. I know numerous people with interest only mortgages who are treading water on the costas, just walk up any street in Torrevieja or Estepona and look at the forsale signs. What amazes me is why people believe the hype. I think that the overseas "off plan" property market is currently built on a dillusional dream that people need to believe as they have invested and they will go to great lengths to justify why they have't thrown away good money after bad. On the airline front I have been dealing with airlines for 25 years and have travelled a bit and know how they think and structure their routes. I am in absolutely no doubt that Natal airport will not become the hub you are thinking it will, certainly not for at least 15 years. I am also in no doubt that charter airlines, be it from Spain or Scandinavia or UK will not want to make spare capacity to fill empty off plan apartments. Low cost airlines, will not start flying to Brasil, their is too much time inthe air, too long a turn round time and yield per passenger against airtime is not as efficient as 2/3 hour flights. If Ryanair could fill and A380 with 800 people at £400 then maybe, but at present they can't sell one ways ex Brasil, they haven't got an A380 on order and when they do, they'll go to Boston! The good news is that I am going to be here for the next 15 years hammering away at you and neither of us can say "I told you so", but if I was an investor I (and I believe many others too) should tell these developers that "they're avving a laugh" and that if they offer sensible prices and sensible deadlines and projections, then they'll get it off the ground. Apart from that, I don't have strong views.

Hi all,

GW- HAPPY READING MY FRIEND!!!
Or is it the so called agents "hype" yet again....????

" A PLACE IN THE SUN" - HOTSPOT: NATAL!

Just some small clippings of the article published:

" ROAD AND AIRPORT IMPROVEMENTS ARE FUELLING A BRAZILIAN BUILDING BOOM IN THIS TROPICAL HAVEN"

" IMprovements in infrastructure are having a knock on effect on the property market. More than £1 billion will be spent on new hotels, golf resorts and condos in the next 4 years, with demand rising accordingly.
For the past 3 years, there has been a 20-25% appreciation on good quality developments in natal.
North of natal, the rio pontegi has proved a natural barrier to development but completion of a large bridge this year and the new international airport in 2009 will open up the area. Sunny weather and ample water for greens gives natal the potential to be a top golf destination, and 15 golf courses are currently at planning stages.


Getting there- Currently only charter operator thomsonfly.com flies direct (from gatwick from november to may).
Scheduled regular flights from lisbon(TAP Portugal) takes 6hrs 45 mins or you can fly internally from brazils main airports. Natals new international airport opens june 2009 and will be the biggest in south america.

Nice to see an article to re-assure me positively regardless that I have made a good investment!!

See ya D

I can see why you haven't invested anywhere as you don't really do any research. Bulgaria joined the EU earlier this year, so if you had known this was going to happen you could have made a bundle like everyone else did...

Now if you were working with airlines in routing and strategy, you would know who was going to join the EU this year and last year, as a change such as this affects airlines in all sorts of ways, but as you stated in another post you deal with duty free, maybe you should stick to that rather than something you don't know much about.

BT

At the risk of going off on another tangent (which is not necessarily bad), I agree that there are several developments which seem to be priced at European prices currently being sold in Brazil. Likewise there are a couple of developments in Spain being sold at "emerging market" prices.

If you look hard enough you can find all of the above and everything in between, but of course price can't be the only deciding factor when looking at investment property (preaching to the converted I'm sure).

I disagree with the 4/5 year comment about Spain though, I know a lot of property which was bought 5 years ago and since sold at a tidy profit, however if over the last 3 years (since 2003) I'd be more inclined to agree.

Well I am glad I am getting some decent venom back now and it is turning into a proper debate. Firstly you are right Bulgaria did join with Romania on 1/1/07. Can't be right on everything. What I am right on is having been to Romania I am glad I didn't invest there and I shudder to think what the beach weather is like in Bulgaria in January! But good luck to all you making a killing. As for knowing nothing about airtravel and airlines, prove me wrong..please prove me wrong. Get me a forward shedule of airlines planning regular direct flights into Natal from Europe or North America? Please tell me why on earth AF/BA/LH/KLM/IB will switch from high yield routes into Roi/SP and into Natal? Please convince me charter operators will launch more routes into Natal's new airport and please convince my why they want to divert their added value "package holiday" revenue into non yielding appartments?
Don't abuse me, convince me....produce the facts and not the pipe dreams. Contact the airlines, ask them! Ask Michael O'Leary why he won't do long haul? If any of these come back to support your views, happy days that's good for all of us, especially for you by the sound of it. In my view it is a pipedream and a well tailored argument that the whole world is going to start flying into Natal just because they open a new airport. Your venom tells me that I have struck a chord and my insticts tell me that I have opened a debate that until now, nobody really wanted to open. Well, I opened it and as time goes on we can review the debate and make our choices.

Bulgaria is in Eu, true, however I think Golfingworld is right in saying that a lot of these developments are priced quite high(of course not be compared with prices in the uk) and I think looking into the 2hand market could be a valid suggestion. Are there any good quality properties for resale? I'm going to Natal in september and I'll have a look at the development proposed in Pipia and Tibao do sul. Any thought anybody?

" What I am right on is having been to Romania I am glad I didn't invest there "

Romania just hit A place in the sun's Number 1 place to invest from there top 20

I've read somewhere that the new airport in Natal will be used as an important hub but mostly(70-80%) for goods. Is this corect? Thanks everybody for the info posted in this forum've read somewhere that the new airport in Natal will be used as an important hub but mostly(70-80%) for goods. Is this corect? Thanks everybody for the info posted in this forum