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Credit Crunch, price declines and bankruptcies...where are the profits in Property? - Page 2

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  #11  
Old 15-04-2008, 12:29 PM
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That's interesting Ralph, from what I saw recently in Natal there is a near standstill in sales and prices. Of course the market is split in many different ways, but I did say "off plan developments" which always tend to be over priced, especially if it is Gringo to Gringo sales. In all seriousness, can anyone really claim that "off plan overseas properties" are still rising in price in Natal area? The reality is that Euro buyers have just about got the same exchange rate, Sterling buyers have lost 20% and Dollar buyers are better off in Dollar related markets...add to that the uncertainty of major projects due to their difficulties and my point is wait, find something finished or nearly finished as to my mind there is no chance of an increase on these developments. Or buy in the finished Brazilian market. Rental returns on these off plan will never get near town centre properties on long lease as mass tourism to natal area is not practical whilst Brazilian airports treat their tourists no better than the fruit they export.

Last edited by Golfingworld; 15-04-2008 at 12:31 PM.
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  #12  
Old 15-04-2008, 12:50 PM
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Default slowly decreasing

slowly decrease in property prices.I only sat around a table full of Brasilians on Saturday,most in the property business and guess what they all spoke about the bubble about to burst!
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Originally Posted by Golfingworld
It seems to me that it has all come home to roost..if anyone still wants to invest abroad in off plan property just ask yourself the point if prices are dropping! Why not wait for them to be finished and buy at a lower price than today?






This however is quite encouraging. 24 hours ago you agreed that prices were dropping, now, 24 hours and 30 minutes later, prices are showing a slow increase. Wonder what will happen in the next 72 hours. Exciting times.

Which development did you buy on last year who is now offering you last years prices?
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  #13  
Old 15-04-2008, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingworld View Post
That's interesting Ralph, from what I saw recently in Natal there is a near standstill in sales and prices. Of course the market is split in many different ways, but I did say "off plan developments" which always tend to be over priced, especially if it is Gringo to Gringo sales. In all seriousness, can anyone really claim that "off plan overseas properties" are still rising in price in Natal area? The reality is that Euro buyers have just about got the same exchange rate, Sterling buyers have lost 20% and Dollar buyers are better off in Dollar related markets...add to that the uncertainty of major projects due to their difficulties and my point is wait, find something finished or nearly finished as to my mind there is no chance of an increase on these developments. Or buy in the finished Brazilian market. Rental returns on these off plan will never get near town centre properties on long lease as mass tourism to natal area is not practical whilst Brazilian airports treat their tourists no better than the fruit they export.
Totally agree, Prices rising in Bahia, Ill assume Aracuja (because Ive never been) and Ceara because its based on its more infrastructure, high tourism in both foreign AND internal market. Whats Natal based on, hype! The prices in RGD Norte have no right to be so high, in the same league as Bahia and more expensive than Ceara! With no real increase in tourism and all lack of activity of these huge developments in RGDN the property market has no where to go for the near future.
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  #14  
Old 15-04-2008, 01:37 PM
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So where did you buy last year that are today offering you the same prices as last year Dotty?
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  #15  
Old 15-04-2008, 01:44 PM
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What do you mean exploding(high prices??) Well that does not sound too smart why would you buy when prices are too high anyway,another miscalculation from Reais into sterling and what with 30% wiped of UK house prices.Frightening stuff.


Exploding...as in economy, as well as significant domestic and foreign investment.
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  #16  
Old 15-04-2008, 01:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingworld View Post
That's interesting Ralph, from what I saw recently in Natal there is a near standstill in sales and prices. Of course the market is split in many different ways, but I did say "off plan developments" which always tend to be over priced, especially if it is Gringo to Gringo sales. In all seriousness, can anyone really claim that "off plan overseas properties" are still rising in price in Natal area? The reality is that Euro buyers have just about got the same exchange rate, Sterling buyers have lost 20% and Dollar buyers are better off in Dollar related markets...add to that the uncertainty of major projects due to their difficulties and my point is wait, find something finished or nearly finished as to my mind there is no chance of an increase on these developments. Or buy in the finished Brazilian market. Rental returns on these off plan will never get near town centre properties on long lease as mass tourism to natal area is not practical whilst Brazilian airports treat their tourists no better than the fruit they export.

As I stated, I know the Salvador and Aracaju markets very well, and my statements are accurate in respect to them.
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  #17  
Old 15-04-2008, 02:25 PM
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In Natal I can only quote the domestic market and land prices. Houses in the urban districts of Natal have shot up in price in the last year or two, as has the cost of lands to developers. One example is a house that cost just 45000R$ last year was sold recently for R$80,000. A house in Nova Parnamirim that two years ago was R$75000 is now being sold for R$120,000 having had a small reform costing R$10,000. Land that just six months ago was 13R$ m2, is now R$18. New apartment blocks for Brasilian people do not show signs of dropping in price, at least not yet. The Brasilian economy is very strong and does not depend too much on imports, and since the credit market is not in the same league as the US or Europe, and the banks do not lend in the same reckless fashion with loan to values over 100%, the credit crunch will not have the same effect here. This is one of the reasons the currency is strong and long term I believe it will remain so.
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  #18  
Old 15-04-2008, 03:56 PM
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What is interesting about this "world wide slump" is that no major country is officially in recession yet. The US and UK are still growing, there is still plenty of investment money around and the banks are quickly making up for their losses on sub-prime loans by not passing on interest rate cuts to punters (I wonder how long this will last as there must be huge political pressure on the banks to do so).
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  #19  
Old 15-04-2008, 04:46 PM
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I did not buy off plan last year.The prices were and still are 320,000 reais without furniture for a 2 bed lux apartment and 1.2 million reais(300,000 pounds sterling) for the for the larger apartments.I bought off plan from them 4 years and have seen fabulous returns,but the same returns no longer exist I am afraid as the prices are set way too high to begin with.
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So where did you buy last year that are today offering you the same prices as last year Dotty?
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  #20  
Old 15-04-2008, 04:57 PM
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High Micheal,having just read your article I am not quite sure if I agree.Firstly the brasilian banks are at present falling over themselves to offer Brasilians money to buyers(if a little slow) but having spoken to various corretors with regards to payment plans I find it extrodinary that they will negotiate absolutely anything you throw at them because if they do not then they are left with half empty blocks.If you know all the buildings that are going up you will be able to recognize the ones who are having difficulties(normally the ones that are still incomplete after 4 yrs)Go to the justice dept the highest number of cases are non payments of cars and non payment of property,so there you go.
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Originally Posted by michaelbush View Post
In Natal I can only quote the domestic market and land prices. Houses in the urban districts of Natal have shot up in price in the last year or two, as has the cost of lands to developers. One example is a house that cost just 45000R$ last year was sold recently for R$80,000. A house in Nova Parnamirim that two years ago was R$75000 is now being sold for R$120,000 having had a small reform costing R$10,000. Land that just six months ago was 13R$ m2, is now R$18. New apartment blocks for Brasilian people do not show signs of dropping in price, at least not yet. The Brasilian economy is very strong and does not depend too much on imports, and since the credit market is not in the same league as the US or Europe, and the banks do not lend in the same reckless fashion with loan to values over 100%, the credit crunch will not have the same effect here. This is one of the reasons the currency is strong and long term I believe it will remain so.
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