Hi folks,

I need your 'impartial' advice on this issue.

I have been to Morocco and dubai in the last 8 months, with the view of investing.

I am looking at invesmtent opportunities for the short term, 6-9 months, particulary off-plan.

Where do you feel is the right location, with a good exit route? would it be dubai, Morocco or Malaysia?

What kind realisitic returns should I be looking for?

regards.

Hi - my impartial advice is that 6-9 months is too short term. Especially in the current economic climate plus the amount of time it takes for a development to come to fruition - you need to be thinking longer term.

For what it's worth !!

Aquib, a freind of mine is selling his off plan is the spectaculour Saidia project in Morocco - the Kings spearhead project. I think its a luxury on golf villa for £190.000. The developer will ensure you can get your money out if you follow thier procedures. Developer will resell for you at minimal costs (most offplan resales are avoided by agents and if they do resell for you they will want 10%+)

I would not risk anywhere else - not least because the selling costs can be huge and repatriation of funds a pain.

__________________
Been investing abroad a few years. Always amazed people invest in places that produce just a few months rent per year

Despite the turbulence on international markets, in Q1, Romania’s economic growth was four times higher than the EU average, according to the Southeast European Times portal, quoted by Agerpres. The Romanian economy grew by 8.2 per cent in Q1 2008, being the highest jump in the first quarter ever since 1990, according to the National Statistical Institute. The GDP in Q1 was EUR 23.5 bln. By comparison, the average economic growth in the EU was by 2.4 per cent in the same period, according to Eurostat.

The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) forecast that economic growth in Romania would exceed the five per cent annual threshold by 2020, and that the GDP will be EUR 442.3 bln. However, CNP expects the growth of the economy to drop to 6.5 per cent at the end of 2008 and to exceed 6 per cent only in 2009.

Economic growth in Romania may exceed six per cent in 2008 if the agricultural production was good, said central Bank (BNR) Governor Mugur Isarescu. He explained that agricultural production might be EUR 1 bln or one of cent of the GDP. Economy Minister Varujan Vosganian was also optimistic, saying that the growth might continue in Q2 and reach 8 per cent.

AOAR: Economic growth is not a threat

The President of the Businessmen’s Association (AOAR), Florin Pogonaru, and the CEO of Aviva Pensii Private, Eugen Voicu, told The Money Channel that Romania was on the right way from that point of view. ‘I believe we are on the right way and a steady way, too. I am not that scared by macroeconomic figures. Of course, such an inflation arte is not desirable and I can see that we are falling behind our commitments. But let us not forget that this is a time of economic growth on a medium term, I would say, because investment in Romania will continue,’ Aviva Pensii Private CEO Eugen Voicu stated. ‘I also think Romania is on a curve of potential growth with this seven per cent and, again, we should stop judging the economy as such, let’s judge the economy within the on-going convergence process,’ said AOAR President Florin Pogonaru.

Biggest retail growth

In June, Romania also registered the highest retail growth in the European Union both compared to May (4.1 per cent) and compared to the similar period in 2007 (23.3 per cent), a lot higher than the EU average. The 23.3 per cent rise registered by the Romanian retail is 21 times higher than the EU 27 average of 1.1 per cent, and the monthly rise is 4.1 times higher than the one per cent growth arte registered in the EU 27, with the main threats for the Romanian economy remaining inflation and deepening current account deficit. The annual rise of retail in Romania in June was over four times bigger than the 5.7 per cent growth rate reported by the second-ranked country – Slovenia. Updated every month, the 4.1 per cent growth rate is 2.4 times higher than the 1.7 per cent growth rate reported in Sweden.

The most important retail drops in June compared to June 2007 were registered in Latvia (- 8.3 per cent), Spain (- 7.7 per cent) and Estonia (- 7.2 per cent).

The Statistical Office of the European Commission notes there was no data available for Italy and Malta, and that data supplied by The Czech Republic, Ireland, The Hellenic Republic, Cyprus, Hungary and The Netherlands are confidential and cannot be published individually.

Despite the turbulence on international markets, in Q1, Romania’s economic growth was four times higher than the EU average, according to the Southeast European Times portal, quoted by Agerpres. The Romanian economy grew by 8.2 per cent in Q1 2008, being the highest jump in the first quarter ever since 1990, according to the National Statistical Institute. The GDP in Q1 was EUR 23.5 bln. By comparison, the average economic growth in the EU was by 2.4 per cent in the same period, according to Eurostat.

The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) forecast that economic growth in Romania would exceed the five per cent annual threshold by 2020, and that the GDP will be EUR 442.3 bln. However, CNP expects the growth of the economy to drop to 6.5 per cent at the end of 2008 and to exceed 6 per cent only in 2009.

Economic growth in Romania may exceed six per cent in 2008 if the agricultural production was good, said central Bank (BNR) Governor Mugur Isarescu. He explained that agricultural production might be EUR 1 bln or one of cent of the GDP. Economy Minister Varujan Vosganian was also optimistic, saying that the growth might continue in Q2 and reach 8 per cent.

AOAR: Economic growth is not a threat

The President of the Businessmen’s Association (AOAR), Florin Pogonaru, and the CEO of Aviva Pensii Private, Eugen Voicu, told The Money Channel that Romania was on the right way from that point of view. ‘I believe we are on the right way and a steady way, too. I am not that scared by macroeconomic figures. Of course, such an inflation arte is not desirable and I can see that we are falling behind our commitments. But let us not forget that this is a time of economic growth on a medium term, I would say, because investment in Romania will continue,’ Aviva Pensii Private CEO Eugen Voicu stated. ‘I also think Romania is on a curve of potential growth with this seven per cent and, again, we should stop judging the economy as such, let’s judge the economy within the on-going convergence process,’ said AOAR President Florin Pogonaru.

Biggest retail growth

In June, Romania also registered the highest retail growth in the European Union both compared to May (4.1 per cent) and compared to the similar period in 2007 (23.3 per cent), a lot higher than the EU average. The 23.3 per cent rise registered by the Romanian retail is 21 times higher than the EU 27 average of 1.1 per cent, and the monthly rise is 4.1 times higher than the one per cent growth arte registered in the EU 27, with the main threats for the Romanian economy remaining inflation and deepening current account deficit. The annual rise of retail in Romania in June was over four times bigger than the 5.7 per cent growth rate reported by the second-ranked country – Slovenia. Updated every month, the 4.1 per cent growth rate is 2.4 times higher than the 1.7 per cent growth rate reported in Sweden.

The most important retail drops in June compared to June 2007 were registered in Latvia (- 8.3 per cent), Spain (- 7.7 per cent) and Estonia (- 7.2 per cent).

The Statistical Office of the European Commission notes there was no data available for Italy and Malta, and that data supplied by The Czech Republic, Ireland, The Hellenic Republic, Cyprus, Hungary and The Netherlands are confidential and cannot be published individually.

David Howe LLB, LLM

INVESTMENT ROMANIA - Investment in Romanaia, Property management, Due diligence, Renting in Romania

Having read all that and said all that........................Portugal, can`t go wrong.

Dear Iena

Having taken the time to read and study what you have written I think it appropriate to attempt to reply to yourr obvious superior knowledge of where to invest as some people rely on what is written on this forum.

Perhaps you could be kind enough to address the following questions for me and all other readers of this forum.

1. Why is Portugal so good, you have not substantiated anything whatsoever with figures or demographics.

2. As there is a global crissis at the moment and many UK & Irish people have purchased there and now as we all know luxury goods such as holiday homes are the first thing people try to off load. How is this going to effect the Portugese market. From a personal perspective we have 3 clients who have purchased holiday homes in Portugal and are regretting it and want to sell.

Obviously anyone wanting to get opportunity in Portuagal should be looking at hardship sales from foreigners and not new off plan properties, you would agree?

Perhaps you will substantiate now why you cannot go wrong in Portuagal as know 3 people who have.

David Howe LLb. LLM

INVESTMENT ROMANIA - Investment in Romanaia, Property management, Due diligence, Renting in Romania

Morning David,

Superior knowledge! Wish it was superior as I wouldn’t be here in Portugal building 23 apartments, I `d be sunning myself on some holiday Island (Cape Verde most likely).

Portugal has a lot going for it, but like any ill managed company, doesn’t how to use its assets, but its learning. With a 600 years old friendship with the UK, we have no racialism here, no jealousy (as I found in Cyprus) and Brits are welcomed.

We had 27 million tourists in year (2002 figures, pre Maddie McCann days) and armed with 34 golf courses have all year round income streams for landlords. But still, Portugal, although voted 'Tops' in 2005, is well behind in the ratings. Why is this?............

Lack of aggression in its sales ability to 'make it work'. Very rarely seen at Property shows in the UK, Portuguese developers are extremely passive with their sales programmes. They seem to rely on the theory of 'Build it and They will Come' but they really are living in a Field of Dreams if they think it’s an aggressive mode,.................... if they open the doors to their estate agencies at all.

If your three unhappy clients want to sell their properties, they’ll have more success in UK advertising themselves in Exchange and Mart rather than relying on local outlets here.

However, having said that, I won’t tar all with the same brush as the likes of Oceanico Developers are streets ahead on sales on their latest development (right next to my own) at the Amendoeira Golf Course near Silves.
Amendoeira Golf Resort

They opened 'off plan' sales in mid 2007 and have 80% taken already of 400 properties most over half a million Euros. (It’s an Irish owned company, different sales mentality) I understand they now have 7 of the Algarve’s golf courses under their belts.

Same story on Olhao Marina Village, 75% sell-out in a year Marina Village - Olhao, Algarve, Portugal - Property Select

Did you know we have more Porches per square metre in Lisbon than anywhere else in the world? Useless statistic but tells you something doesn’t it?

Here’s an interesting topic, which might appeal....

The “other market”
The Algarve, Portugal’s “other market,” is popular among British and Scandinavian retirees. Property prices in the Algarve are among the highest in Portugal. Prime property prices in Algarve range from €3,400 to €4,000 per sq. m., higher than prices in the centre of the capital, Lisbon, which range from €2,500 to €3,100 per sq. m., according to Global Property Guide research.

“Prices in the Algarve have more than doubled since 1998/9,” explains Nick Sadler of Sadlers', the Algarve arm of Knight Frank.

“A lot of affluent people in the UK have reached the point when they want to convert their affluence into property,” says Sadler. “The Algarve is very attractive to them.”

The Algarve’s rental market continues to be very strong, supported by beach and golf tourism. “The Algarve has the advantage that it is a golfing destination, so there are both golfing tourists and beach tourists,” says Pascal Marreiros, Director of Algarve Gold.

“We also have good airplane flights. We are also a very secure destination, no terrorism here.” Travel to the Algarve has also been made easier by the Lisbon-Algarve motorway, and by the dramatic increase in the size of Faro airport. There are regular Easy-Jet flights.
.................................................. .........

However, so you so rightly say, we are in a slump and it will probably go one on a couple of years, so those looking for a swift ROI had better think again and be prepared for a reasonable wait or risk investing in another 'up and coming' growing country.


My advice for what its worth, is do what I’m doing, buy a piece of land, wait a year for panning permission, take a year to build and let the market heal itself.
There will always be a market for people holidaying, retiring or investing so, choose somewhere with a stable history, plenty of sunshine and welcoming people.
Portugal fits the bill perfectly.

As Amanda Lamb said in 2005 'Make Portugal your Home in the Sun'

Here are all the facts and figures I can lay my hands on.

Global Property Guide
Portugal Facts & Figures - Economy Population Employment :: Portugal Visitor

Finally, we do have Sir Cliff Richard living here and he’s been enjoying the place for 20 years along with hundreds of thousands of ex-pats, they can’t all be wrong....or can they?

Have a nice day, the suns shining here on the Algarve and I`m off to the beach now !!

To be honest I am still not overly convinced as you speak of dream overseas holiday homes not investments. This is a market that was fuelled by speculation and if I was in your place I would be nervous about shifying my off plan as globally I see an ovr supply and with the crissis at home many of the developmens with deposits paid will find people walking away and where a development is bank financed the bank will dictate sale pice thereafter.

All markets are becoming very nteresting for the inormed investor at present, but for the person looking at holdiday homes I believe it is buyer beware.


David Howe LLB. LLM

INVESTMENT ROMANIA - Investment in Romanaia, Property management, Due diligence, Renting in Romania

L am not trying to convince you of anything, to persuade or cajole you, Portugal is here and its not going anywhere but up, albeit slowly. Its full of holiday homes, absolutely loaded with them. Take a look at most blocks of flats after summer. All the blinds are down, balconies empty, no one there. That worries me to some extent as it makes ghost towns. 25% local inhabitants, 75% investment props, closed until next years hols.
Now who owns these ghost props, the Portuguese own them for their own pleasure and don’t rent out. (no doubt our Porsche owners) We have a built in 'buyers club' here in Portugal, don’t need to look elsewhere. We aee not not building our props for the Brits, we are building for them, our local in house market.

.....and that’s investment building. I have 8 UK investors funding this build and are very likely to see far more profit than what they thought. Its not a case of 'Build it and they will come' its a case of 'Research your Market, Build it, then SELL it to them'

I agree with your comments re banks dictating final prices (pay us back or sell `em off cheap)(next step repossession) (been there) and clients walking away, we all want action, action and more action but if left to the Portuguese developers, you just won’t find that here.
We are privately financed and can afford to wait...............and rent out until the clouds disappear. By keeping our heads down and not anticipating too much for the next 18 months except a steady trickle of sales and some good rentals, we come out on top.

Talking about over supply, Spain did that, just got greedy never thinking they would have competition or global problems and look at `em now. Thousands of apartments at give away prices, my advice, buy `em and sit on it, grab a few rents but expect nothing, you’ll be surprised in 5 years.

You know as well as I do, the investment market, when you leave it to others to control your money, has a risk element, my advice D.I.Y it. Its easy, just phone a friend......or two, form a group where decency, morals and principles are your main concern and forget expressions like 'its business' its 'beyond my control', 'we’re moving the goal posts'.....and forget megga profits, what’s promised is that we work together to deliver, if it works, we all gain, if not, well at least we tried. Nothing on this world is guaranteed not even the banks there is only one thing for sure, we all have a talent, a level of incompetence and friends who can help. If we appreciate what it takes to make money, its not just YOU, its all of US.

Sometimes I despair at the frustrations the Portuguese planning councils impose on us, but a quick chat with the group and the ideas just flow out. I’ll tell you, 9 brains are a darn site better than mine.

Working together, you can move mountains.............and we do, you just need three quotes.